Apple Brought a Rocket Launcher to a Gun Fight in a Nuclear War
Apple v. Epic, indeed...
Watching the Apple v. Epic courtroom battle from afar has been fascinating. On one hand, it seems pretty clear that Apple is going to win this case on various legal grounds and precedents. On the other, they clearly have so much more to lose than this case.
That’s why I was surprised that Apple allowed it to go this far. Which is to say, to court. Where again, ruling aside, both public opinion and more importantly, discovery come into play. Look, I get it. Apple feels duped. And they were! And they feel wronged. And, I mean maybe? But regardless, come on, Apple, you’re a $2 trillion company. The world’s only $2T company, in fact.
You’re no longer the resistance battling Big Brother IBM. You’re no longer the David fighting the Microsoft Goliath. In terms of market cap, you’re now bigger than both of those old foes, combined. Granted, Epic is no pipsqueak, but your revenue last year alone was 10x what Epic is worth as a private company. You’re not just fighting down, you’re now Big Brother Goliath fighting down. Even if you win, you lose.
Obviously, Apple is hoping a win in court will both make a statement and set a new precedent for the way they are operating and wish to continue operating the App Store. But no matter what the courts decide here, the public, and by extension, the regulators are just gearing up for a new, much larger battle. And as a direct result of all the various things unearthed in discovery for this trial, you’re going to lose that battle. And that matters because it’s the actual fight on which the war will be decided.
And that’s why I have to believe that Epic’s maneuver here wasn’t a calculation for today, but for tomorrow. And while they’ve been saying this is about more than Epic, such cliches often ring hollow — here, I’m not so sure. What started as a savvy PR move to poke the bear,1 actually may have ensnared the bear in a trap. And the bear viewed the trap as a giant den of honey.2 And ate the whole thing. He just couldn’t help himself. And now he actually can’t help himself.
The die is cast. Apple is now in a war they cannot win, after they win this battle.
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The analogies must continue!
Do bears actually like honey, or just Winnie the Pooh?
I went to Yellowstone this summer, and there was an exhibit on bear-proof trash cans. They aren't considered bear-proof until a single bear has spent more than one hour trying to get into it. How do they attract bears willing to spend an hour trying to break into a trash can? They fill them with honey.